度重なるイラン側のミサイル発射ミスで明暗を分けた事実

1月8日未明のアル・アサド空軍基地の米軍襲撃目的は見事に外れたようだ。米軍、イラク軍は8時間前に移動し、ミサイル攻撃による死者、負傷者はゼロであったようである。イラン側は負傷者が出たと言っているが、その後、「殺害を意図したわけではない。軍事機器にダメージを与えたかった」という声明が出た。その一方でイラン側からは今回の襲撃で米軍に死者が出たと報告されている。両者の食い違いが明らかであるが、気になるのはこの爆撃の通告はイランからはもちろん無かったが、イラクの首相の補佐官は他国を通じて、警告をつたえてきた国は、アラブ諸国に一国と欧州の一国があると言っている。どこかの国が盗聴なり、特定の航空コードがどこかの国に売られている可能性を疑わざるを得ない。この疑問を持っている最中に2012年ウイキーリークスが公表した情報会社ストラスフォーの電子メールの写とメールが見つかった。それによると2009年2月26日付けメールでイスラエルが特定のUAV(無人機)のデータリンクコードをロシアに提供、見返りにロシアはイスラエルに、イランのTor-1のコードを通達しているとの事実が判明した。(櫻井ジャーナルによる)

時折しも2008年5月から、2012年5圧まではメドベージェフ氏が大統領就任中であった。これは極めて重大なニュースだ。当方の見る限り、この櫻井ジャーナルのみがこの事実を明らかにしている。よりによってイランのリンクコードをほかでもないあのイスラエルに渡したのが、事もあろうに当時のロシア大統領のメドベージェフであったなんて想像だにできないことだ。

この事実からもかなり以前からイランのデータリンクコードは敵側に渡っていると見ていい。こういうことなら、イランの爆撃想定コードも意図も容易く判定できるわけで8日のイラン側の爆撃予想もその対処もいとも簡単にできてしまうことになる。

これに続いて数時間後のイランによるウクライナ機の爆撃もイラン側の誤爆という説明のみでは十分な回答にならないだろう。

まず第一にイラン上空で米軍の軍用機が何機もうるさく旋回飛行していて、落ち着いて敵・味方を判定することもかなり困難な状況ともう一つはデータリンクコードが予めどこかの国の手に入っていてそのコードを打ち込んでおけばイラン側の出方は手にとるように容易にわかってしまうという事実である。この事実と先に触れた米軍軍用機の執拗な上空旋回により誤作動も容易に作動させうることも可能であろう。以上が想定し得るシナリオである。

このようなゲームの様なシナオリで170有余名の人の命を一瞬のうちに亡き者にすることができることはとんでもないことだ。

この大惨事の原因を辿っていくと、メドベージェフ氏が大統領在任中にイスラエルと取引した事実は事件の大きな要因になっていることは否めない。もちろんプーチン氏もこの事実を知っていることは間違いない。だから、イランの大惨事を8日に目の当たりにして、メドベージェフ氏を下ろすことに決意したのであろう。プーチンはちょうどこの事件から1週間目に年頭教書を発表して驚愕の中身を披露したのである。在任中のすべての出来事はプーチン自身の身にかぶさってくる問題でそれでは安心して院政を敷くこともできない状況を彼は悟ったのであろう。  

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